NOAA releases the 2021-22 winter outlook
NOAA released its 2021-22 Winter Outlook for the United States. The outlook is based on several dynamical and statistical models along with ongoing climate trends, and specifically relates the three month period of December-January-February (DJF).
North central Kansas:
• Signals favor temperatures to be slightly warmer than normal.
• There are no strong trends to favor above, below or near normal precipitation. The normal variability of precipitation should be anticipated.
This year’s outlook is largely weighted on the impacts of La Nina conditions in the central Pacific Ocean along the equator. La Nina conditions occur when the sea surface temperature in the region is slightly below normal. The change in sea surface temperatures can impact atmospheric circulations across the United States and beyond. The La Nina conditions are expected to reach the “moderate” category and peak around January 2022 followed by a slow weakening into the spring.
La Nina is known for its variability on the Central Plains, which makes it hard to "fit" this winter outlook into a specific above or below normal category. Typically, La Nina conditions favor near normal to slightly below normal precipitation over the course of the winter. However, the middle part of the winter, from mid-to-late January through mid-to-late February, can often be a snowier time, though the snow tends to be drier in nature (less overall moisture volume). The tail end of the winter leading into spring favors drier conditions, though March 2021 (another La Nina Year) was an exception with a very wet March.
Temperatures trends usually suggest wide variability from month-to-month (or more often), such as more frequent bouts with brief cold spells. In the end, temperatures throughout the winter should be expected to be about normal, but that will vary depending upon location. Slightly warmer conditions are favored across Kansas, but cooler than normal conditions are more likely across parts of the Dakotas, while Nebraska lies in between those two temperatures regimes.
No matter how the winter turns out, now is the time to prepare for anything Mother Nature may have in store.
